The Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN) disease is so dangerous that we cannot wait for its next victims incognito. These are direct words of Dr. Brian Isabirye, the ASARECA official in charge of coordinating regional efforts to curb the spread of MLN in Eastern and Central Africa. MLN was first spotted in Kenya in 2011, before spreading to Uganda, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Rwanda. We are not very certain of where it will attack next, says Dr. Isabirye.
As the saying goes, fore warned is fore armed predictive study to predetermine potential areas of risk of infestation by MLN was undertaken by ASARECA in partnership with colleagues in the region. The study attempts to understand the spatio-temporal distribution of MLN risk in Africa using ecological niche models, which include inputs such as climatic data (temperature and rainfall) and known detections of MLN across Africa.
Outcomes of the modeling published in the Journal of Crop Protection indicates that a high risk of MLN across the warm arid, semi arid, and sub-humid tropics of Eastern and Southern Africa. Western and Southern Africa showed only moderate suitability, while much of North Africa appears to be marginal in risk.
The countries with largest modeled suitable habitats for MCMV virus were Ethiopia, Tanzania, D.R. Congo, Angola, South Africa and Madagascar. In terms of proportional potential yield loss, Rwanda, Burundi, and Swaziland are likely to be worst hit with 100% yield loses, followed by Uganda (88.1%), Tanzania (65.9%), Ethiopia (59.8%), Malawi (53.8%), Madagascar (45.1%), and Kenya (41.1%). See full article pdf and link http://jcp.modares.ac.ir/article_14054_5288be780a04c484c434e32a2667e31b.pdf